Bronx, N.Y., Oct. 20, 2001 — They’re paraded as fact all the time, and if there is a field of interest more awash in them than sports (other than that particular breeding ground of politics) I haven’t come in contact with it. And you know, there’s nothing like receiving a good old-fashioned butt kicking to make you pause, look around and take a good look at things. The following is clearly true:

The Seattle Mariners are a good baseball club, who had an extraordinary regular season. They have a legendary hitter in Edgar Martinez, an astonishing phenomenon in Ichiro Suzuki, a very good bullpen and a pretty good staff of starters, topped off on the left and right respectively by Jamie Moyer and Freddy Garcia. It is also true that as of last evening they have won six of seven games played in the Bronx in 2001.

On the other hand, though it impresses me, there is no prize for playing .860 ball as a visiting team in the Bronx (nor do I expect that winning percentage to remain). Should this series extend that long, Freddy Garcia won’t throw another pitch until Wednesday, and Moyer not until Thursday. Mr. Garcia has already been bested by the Yanks third starting pitcher in the playoffs. He would have to reverse that result while Mr. Moyer would have to hope against a similar reversal when battling a man who had a two-run lead on him with two outs in the fifth.

And now for the big half- truth. If Seattle has won six out of seven, they have obviously lost one. Who could have been the starting pitcher that day? He is the selfsame guy who is starting for the Mariners today. On Friday, August 17 Paul Abbott surrendered a home run on the first pitch he delivered to Derek Jeter leading off the game. By the time he left the mound not to return after the bottom of the fourth, he had surrendered three more (though third base ump Tim Timmins inaccurately ruled Clay Bellinger’s shot a double).

So listen to Lou Piniella’s bluster. Watch him wax poetic in front of those microphones. But remember that though he may be inappropriate form time to time, he’s not stupid. And he knows that even having survived a 4-2/3 inning scare today, the only way the Mariners are returning to Seattle as a baseball team is if Mr. Abbott doesn’t implode tonight and Aaron Sele finally finds a way to beat the Yankees in the post.

So let me finish this off with another half-truth. But, although it is admittedly not totally the truth, it more honestly paints a picture than Lou’s white lie, because it is likely to do what Lou’s can’t ever do. It will probably be a whole truth in just a couple of days.

Yankees in five.

YANKEE BASEBALL!!!