You Do the Math

Bronx, N.Y., August 30, 2002 — Well, they’re playing baseball, though the way the Yanks ended up being threatened at 8-6 after leading this one 8-0 had some Yankee fans wondering if that was such a good thing. Apparently shellshocked, the fan celebrations seem subdued, and some fans are reacting as if there was a work stoppage. That is understandable with all the debate over months and months while this thing dragged on, and with the negative way the players were portrayed by the owners and in the media. But few seem to be reveling in the undeniable: We are now guaranteed to enjoy at least 13 consecutive years of major league baseball uninterrupted by a labor-related stoppage. In a sport whose glorious history is cited as often for the fans’ enjoyment as winning seasons for their favorite teams, how many of us realize that that is a claim that most of our fathers can’t make?

Sue was startled as she strode through the living room late in the game. She thought we were experiencing Jeff Weaver deja vu when she checked on me and the game in the eighth inning. “8-6! It was 8-0 before. I hope this isn’t another case of Weaver syndrome. You know, Yanks score runs, Jeff gives lead back.” Sue was with me when we witnessed Jeff’s initial Yankee start on July 7, you see, against these selfsame Blue Jays. Jeff got his first Yank “W” that day. It’s interesting, I think, that he got his first during tennis’s major tournament at Wimbledon, and now he records his next while the court stars are battling for the U.S. Open title in Queens. He’d better pick up the pace. Tennis has only four “majors.”

Jeff gave up a three-run bomb to Carlos Delgado in the first inning on that hot, cloudy, July Sunday in the Bronx. Rbi from Jeter, Bernie, and Mondesi got him back to even in the third, but Jeff buried us again on a three-run gopher ball to Vernon Wells. Weaver got the win that day, however, because the Yanks scored more, so I guess Sue can be forgiven for thinking that the almost loss of a huge lead like last night’s was “Weaver Syndrome.” (Ironically by the way, we scored eight runs for Jeff back in July, while hitting no home runs ourselves — very un-2002-like.)

But Jeff only gave up three runs in six innings last night. The nine hits were a little high, but so were the seven strike outs, and he escapes the start altogether scoreless if he dosn’t throw away Hinske’s double play grounder in the fifth. The defense was ugly, and Jeff “helped.” He had the Jays off balance for much of the night, was 17-9 on first pitch strikes, and finished strong with a 1-2-3 sixth. Delgado did go yard, but not off Jeff, and Weaver has to be congratulated for what was really a fine start when one considers that it was made on an emergency basis, and on only three days rest.

Jeff is 26 years and a week old, as he was born on August 22, 1976, which was a pretty successful year in Yankee history, but that day found the Yanks being swept, losing the third of three to the California Angels. He shares his birthday with Philadelphia lefty starter Randy Wolf. He was drafted by the White Sox in 1996 as was J.D. Drew by Wolf’s Phillies, but both clubs failed to sign their picks and the two re-entered the draft in 1998. The Phillies grabbed Pat Burrell first (and he’s having a huge year there), and the A’s followed with lefty Mark Mulder. Drew went to St. Louis as no. 5. Toronto shortstop Felipe Lopez was picked ahead of Jeff at no. 8; Indians lefty C.C. Sabathia lower at no. 20. Ironically, Jeff went to Detroit as no. 14, four picks after Texas chose Carlos Pena — the same Pena that was part of the three-team trade that brought Jeff to New York.

Last night’s offense was great, though dominated by the long ball, as it has been for much of the season. Alfonso had two homers among his three hits, scored three runs, stole a base, and had three rbi, advancing his numbers closer and closer to the 40/40 that seem to be his 2002 destiny. His offense continues to present a quandary. He leads off with a very low on-base percentage (12th among leadoff men in the 14-team American League), primarily due to his aggressive approach and lack of walks. But, as has so often been the case in this Yankees-on-a-mission season, he jumped on the first pitch of the night from an opposition starter again. And starting the bottom of the ninth, only he and Derek were guaranteed to have a fifth at bat. It’s only luck and numbers that the homer he hit with that fifth at bat was not the final margin in the game. But few Yankee fans would quibble with how glad I was that he of all players got a fifth ab, particularly once Delgado followed up by making it interesting with his bottom-of-the-ninth homer.

And of course Bernie was big with the bat again, and corner outfielders Raul and Shane kicked in two hits a piece. But the rbi bat of Jorge Posada was at it again too. Doubling twice, he scored once and knocked in three. The three-run double was a few feet from being his third grand slam of the season, and in Jorge’s case that’s not just a statistical anomaly. More than any Yank (by far) he gets the big hit when there are runners to be scored. He is one of only four Yanks this season who has hit more several-run homers than singletons (Two of Coomer’s three, eight of Johnson’s 14, and 13 of Robin’s 25 have been several-run shots.)

When fans against Soriano leading off tire of talking about his low OBP, they rue the runs missed by so many of his homers delivering the minimum amount of runs. Only 26% of his homers have delivered more than himself. Mondesi follows with a 38% muti-run homer rate. Bernie’s is 44%, Jason stands at 47%, and Robin picks up extra runners 52% of the time. Jorge’s numbers in this “bang for the buck” category are almost otherworldly. His homers-with-men-on-base percentage: 75%!

And there are other good numbers too. We start play on August’s last day still up by 8.5 over the Red Sox. We confront the morning tied with Atlanta for the best record in baseball, and best winning percentage, at .632. But it gets better than that. Since the Yanks fell a season-high five games out of first place way back on May 7, we have played relentless winning baseball, to the tune of .670 ball over 100 games!

And Mike Mussina was sharing a math lesson the other day too. Relating how he had heard a report on TV “that 90 percent of the teams that go to Spring Training know they’re not going to the playoffs,” he questioned what sport that “expert” had been watching. “Ninety percent of 30 is 27 — we send eight teams to the playoffs every year.” You do the math.

BTW,TYW

YANKEE BASEBALL!!!